Opinion: Our constitutional crisis is already here

  

Kagan image from

Opinion by Robert Kagan, Contributing columnist, The Washington Post, September 23, 2021 at 3:32 p.m. EDT

A recent reaction to Kagan's essay by Washington Post commentator Daniel W. Drezner: "Over the weekend it was impossible for me to go on social media and not see someone linking or hyping Robert Kagan’s latest in The Washington Post.  ...  Kagan is not wrong — both elected leaders and appointed officials need to start thinking now about what can be done to minimize the threats posed to the Republic by the most dangerous former U.S. official since Aaron Burr." Another recent reaction: "Why the Fear of Trump May Be Overblown."

Excerpt from Kagan article: 

“Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation.” — James Madison 

The United States is heading into its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War, with a reasonable chance over the next three to four years of incidents of mass violence, a breakdown of federal authority, and the division of the country into warring red and blue enclaves. The warning signs may be obscured by the distractions of politics, the pandemic, the economy and global crises, and by wishful thinking and denial. But about these things there should be no doubt: 

First, Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for president in 2024. The hope and expectation that he would fade in visibility and influence have been delusional. He enjoys mammoth leads in the polls; he is building a massive campaign war chest; and at this moment the Democratic ticket looks vulnerable. Barring health problems, he is running. 

Second, Trump and his Republican allies are actively preparing to ensure his victory by whatever means necessary. Trump’s charges of fraud in the 2020 election are now primarily aimed at establishing the predicate to challenge future election results that do not go his way. Some Republican candidates have already begun preparing to declare fraud in 2022, just as Larry Elder tried meekly to do in the California recall contest.

Meanwhile, the amateurish “stop the steal” efforts of 2020 have given way to an organized nationwide campaign to ensure that Trump and his supporters will have the control over state and local election officials that they lacked in 2020. Those recalcitrant Republican state officials who effectively saved the country from calamity by refusing to falsely declare fraud or to “find” more votes for Trump are being systematically removed or hounded from office. Republican legislatures are giving themselves greater control over the election certification process. As of this spring, Republicans have proposed or passed measures in at least 16 states that would shift certain election authorities from the purview of the governor, secretary of state or other executive-branch officers to the legislature. An Arizona bill flatly states that the legislature may “revoke the secretary of state’s issuance or certification of a presidential elector’s certificate of election” by a simple majority vote. Some state legislatures seek to impose criminal penalties on local election officials alleged to have committed “technical infractions,” including obstructing the view of poll watchers. The stage is thus being set for chaos. ...