Russia-Ukraine War: What’s next after Kherson Inbox

  (via email)

November 11, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

A Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Mykolaiv killed seven people. Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded and that Ukraine had probably suffered a similar number of casualties. President Vladimir Putin will skip next week’s summit of leaders of the Group of 20 in Indonesia. U.S. officials say President Biden will be “unapologetic” about the U.S. defense of Ukraine at the meeting. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

Videos posted on social media showed crowds cheering Ukrainian soldiers in Freedom Square in Kherson, Ukraine.via Reuters

What’s next after Kherson

Ukrainian forces were greeted by cheering crowds as they entered Kherson today after Russia withdrew its forces from the southern city. Residents raised the Ukrainian flag in the main square in celebration.

The loss of Kherson, the only regional capital to be captured by Russia in nearly nine months of war, is a humiliation for Putin. Six weeks ago, he announced that Russia was annexing Kherson and three other regions of Ukraine and vowed that they would “forever” belong to Russia.

For Ukraine, the return of Kherson is one of its most significant victories of the war. President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was a “historic day.”

So what happens now? Despite this blow to Russia, analysts agree that the war is far from over. Here’s a look at what might lie ahead.

A flare-up in fighting: Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine, said the withdrawal would free up troops — thought to be among his army’s best trained and battle-hardened — to fight elsewhere on the front line. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, expects an escalation in fighting in eastern Ukraine. “The only way Surovikin could realistically sell the idea of the Kherson retreat to Putin was by offering the promise of assured success in the east,” wrote Zagorodnyuk, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a research organization based in Washington. “Ukraine must therefore brace for a major escalation in the Donbas region in the coming weeks.”

A woman wept after Ukrainian troops entered Snihurivka, a town in the Kherson region.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

A winter war: Some U.S. officials have suggested that the fighting could slow down over the winter because conditions would be more difficult. That appears to be a point of contention among some analysts, who say that it is not in Ukraine’s interests to ease up. “Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote. Ukraine is about to receive an additional $400 million in U.S. military aid that includes air defense systems and cold weather gear.

Peace talks: Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case in internal meetings that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in, and should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table, reports Peter Baker, our chief White House correspondent. Other advisers to President Biden disagree. Some U.S. officials say that peace talks remain a distant prospect and that both sides think continued fighting will strengthen their eventual negotiating positions.

The endgame: Western and Ukrainian officials are starting to envisage what a stable conclusion to the war might look like, The Economist reports. Will Ukraine become a new Finland, forced to cede land and remain neutral? Or another West Germany, with its territory partitioned and its democratic half absorbed into NATO? Another template is Israel, which has been able to defend itself against hostile neighbors with extensive U.S. military support. Last night, Biden told reporters that the conflict would not be resolved “until Putin gets out of Ukraine.”

From social media: Tearing down a Russia poster in Bilozerka, Kherson region; a crowd cheering in Freedom Square in Kherson; a Ukrainian flag flying in Freedom Square.via Reuters

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In Ukraine

The Antonivsky Bridge, which crossed the Dnipro River in the city of Kherson, was blown up before dawn, after most Russian forces retreated and just before Ukraine’s forces entered the city. Ukrainian forces have retaken dozens of towns and villages in the Kherson region.

Around the world

South Korea is selling artillery shells to the U.S., on condition that it does not send them to Ukraine. Russian and U.N. officials are holding talks in Switzerland to try to iron out the extension of a deal enabling Ukrainian grain shipments, The Associated Press reported. With control of the U.S. Congress uncertain after the midterm elections, analysts expect that Europe will be under pressure to increase its financial and military support for Ukraine. From Opinion: Putin has responded to setbacks by demanding more sacrifices for an ever crueler war, but Russians’ patience is not boundless, Serge Schmemann writes. Some people dismiss Russia’s nuclear threats as saber rattling, but this is a false assurance, Alexander Gabuev writes in The Atlantic.

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The Kremlin and state media distanced Putin from the setback in Kherson, but it is getting harder for the Russian leader to separate himself from the stench of failure.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Monday.— Carole

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